A 2000 paper about "Peak Oil" predicts when world production of fossil fuels will reach a peak and start to fall forcing us to change our usage. This paper predicts that there will still be production 2050, but I am unclear if this production is based off of what is available or what we are willing to produce. This is an issue because America has untapped petroleum reserves that could last us 60 years and natural gas that could last us 160 years. The paper does not take "shale oil" into account. America may have over 200 years worth of "shale oil." Unfortunately most of these resources are blocked.
The bottom line is with world production we will still have fuel in 2050. If the U.S. would change its energy development policies the U.S. could be self sufficient for over 200 years.
Fortunately the government wants to save us from this depletion of fossil fuels. Electric cars and wind turbines are being touted as savior technologies. So these technologies are being built, installed, and promoted. It feels as if we are a step away from having a choice of traditional cars and energy sources taken away.
So here is the punchline. We need to build these products. These green technologies require Lithium. So as we head towards a fossil fuel calamity more than 200 years down the road, how far down the road is a Lithium calamity? 15 years. The products that are supposed to save us from fossil fuel will be dead 185 years before it.
However, there is always solar energy, as long as the government does not get involved! Solyndra *cough* *cough*
UPDATE: Jan 12th
Either I completely misread one of the source articles, or the source article was changed without notation, but the Lithium shortage is in 5 years, not 15.
No comments:
Post a Comment